Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
