Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
